Betting strategies have 2 main components, the selections you bet on and how much you stake per bet. Let’s look at these in detail for the game of dice.
In the game of dice you chose a number and bet whether you will roll over or under that number. What you are really deciding is what probability you want to give your bet of winning. Betting you will roll over 66.66 is the same as betting that you will roll under 33.33, both have a 33.33% chance of winning and pay out 3 mBTC for every 1 mBTC that you bet (2.97 mBTC after 1% house edge).
These are the most common numbers and probabilities to bet with.
The probability you make your betting strategy around depends on what probability is suited to your staking plan which is far more important given in this game the 1% house edge is always the same no matter what number you choose.
Patterns in previous rolls
The most common way people choose selections is by identifying patterns in previous rolls and betting on those patterns to break. The classic example is when you see your last 10 rolls have been under 50 and then start betting over 50 because it is due to happen.
Another possibility is if you observe that the last 10 rolls have been alternating over 50, under 50, over 50, under 50 and so on. You could start betting on the rolls to stop alternating. To do this you would bet over 50 after the last roll was over 50 and under 50 after the last roll was under 50 in the hope that over or under would come up twice in a row.
These concepts can be expanded to patterns of any complexity. You might notice the dice have been rolling over 75 twice in a row then under 60 three times in a row for 20 rolls, which is 4 cycles. Any pattern you find can be bet against, or indeed you could bet on the pattern to continue but given the rolls are random we intuitively expect the pattern to break.
Past random events have no bearing on future random events. However given that the numbers are random, patterns can not continue indefinitely and they are fun and interesting to find and bet against.
Because all dice bets having the same -1% expected value, dice is all about the staking plan. The simplest staking plan is to always bet the same amount, if you do that for long enough your results should be in line with the house edge. Let’s look at some more fun and potentially profitable possibilities.
This staking plan is so popular it has its own wikipedia page. In a martingale system you progressively increase your bets during a losing streak. When you do win a bet the profit will cover all previous losses accumulated during the streak and give a profit of the original amount you were going for. This is the classic roulette system of doubling down on red until a red comes up.
Here is an example with dice. Bet 1 mBTC to roll over 50.
If that loses bet 2 mBTC to roll over 50.
If that loses bet 4 mBTC to roll over 50.
If that loses bet 8 mBTC to roll over 50.
and so on, if any of these bets win it will recover all previous losses plus the 1 mBTC profit you were going for with the first bet.
Where martingales come unstuck is when you have a very long losing streak and either run out of funds or reach the operators maximum bet. In this case you can not keep increasing the bets to an amount that would recover the losses. To mitigate this you can use a stop loss where once you have lost a certain amount in a streak you stop betting or change the strategy.
Variation: Martingail to break even
Instead of starting off your bet progression staking 1, 2, 4, 8 et cetera make it 1, 1, 2, 4, 8 et cetera. This means if your first bet wins you win 1, if any subsequent bet wins you break even but your stakes increases slower and you can withstand a losing streak one loss longer.
Variation: Inverse martingale
Most staking plans also make sense if you do the exact opposite. In the case of the inverse martingale that means increasing your bet size when you are on a winning streak rather than when you are on a losing streak.
The martingale sees you making your biggest bets on your worst losing streaks, wouldn’t you rather make your biggest bets when you are on a winning streak? Simply set the % of the streaks accumulated winnings you wish to stake on each bet.
For example, say for each bet you will risk 50% of the streaks winnings. The below table shows your stakes during a 10 roll winning streak on a 50/50 bet.
Whatever amount your losing bet turns out to be is the same as how much you win from the streak after that losing bet. So if you lost on bet 6 which had a stake of 2.531 you have kept 2.531 in winnings from the other bets as your losing stake was only 50% of your accumulated winnings and you keep the other 50%.
Auto-betting bots do the calculations for you
Generally no series of bets with negative expectations can have a positive expectation overall. We have found 1 way to play dice with a positive expectation. When Nitrogen’s jackpot is over 3650 mBTC it becomes mathematically profitable to bet because the jackpot is more than you expect to lose betting enough that you expect to win it.